Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
